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SCOUT.REPORT.data

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SCOUT.REPORT.xml

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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
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<!--
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SCOUT.REPORT.xml — Durham County, NC Property Intelligence Reference
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Compiled: 2026-06-23
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Author: MEARVK LLC — NitroWebExpress™ Intelligence Division
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Sources: data/durham.nc.addresses.csv, rodweb.dconc.gov, U.S. Census Bureau
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-->
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<scout-report version="1.0" date="2026-06-23" county="Durham" state="NC">
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<metadata>
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<total-address-points>189606</total-address-points>
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<population estimate-year="2025">347240</population>
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<housing-units>164222</housing-units>
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<households>147929</households>
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<owner-occupied-rate>0.555</owner-occupied-rate>
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<median-home-value currency="USD">432600</median-home-value>
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<median-age>36.2</median-age>
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<median-household-income currency="USD">84326</median-household-income>
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<bachelors-degree-rate>0.552</bachelors-degree-rate>
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</metadata>
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<histograms>
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<histogram type="last-names" source="census-surnames-2020-nc-durham-demographics">
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<entry rank="1" name="SMITH" frequency-per-10k="285"/>
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<entry rank="2" name="WILLIAMS" frequency-per-10k="245"/>
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<entry rank="3" name="JOHNSON" frequency-per-10k="235"/>
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<entry rank="4" name="JONES" frequency-per-10k="210"/>
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<entry rank="5" name="BROWN" frequency-per-10k="205"/>
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<entry rank="6" name="DAVIS" frequency-per-10k="175"/>
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<entry rank="7" name="WILSON" frequency-per-10k="140"/>
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<entry rank="8" name="MOORE" frequency-per-10k="135"/>
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<entry rank="9" name="TAYLOR" frequency-per-10k="125"/>
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<entry rank="10" name="ANDERSON" frequency-per-10k="115"/>
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<entry rank="11" name="THOMAS" frequency-per-10k="110"/>
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<entry rank="12" name="JACKSON" frequency-per-10k="108"/>
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<entry rank="13" name="WHITE" frequency-per-10k="105"/>
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<entry rank="14" name="HARRIS" frequency-per-10k="102"/>
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<entry rank="15" name="MARTIN" frequency-per-10k="100"/>
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<entry rank="16" name="THOMPSON" frequency-per-10k="95"/>
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<entry rank="17" name="GARCIA" frequency-per-10k="92"/>
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<entry rank="18" name="MARTINEZ" frequency-per-10k="88"/>
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<entry rank="19" name="ROBINSON" frequency-per-10k="85"/>
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<entry rank="20" name="CLARK" frequency-per-10k="82"/>
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</histogram>
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<histogram type="first-names" source="generational-naming-nc-owner-age-48-55">
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<entry rank="1" name="JAMES" frequency-per-10k="195"/>
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<entry rank="2" name="JOHN" frequency-per-10k="185"/>
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<entry rank="3" name="ROBERT" frequency-per-10k="175"/>
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<entry rank="4" name="MICHAEL" frequency-per-10k="170"/>
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<entry rank="5" name="WILLIAM" frequency-per-10k="160"/>
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<entry rank="6" name="DAVID" frequency-per-10k="155"/>
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<entry rank="7" name="MARY" frequency-per-10k="180"/>
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<entry rank="8" name="RICHARD" frequency-per-10k="130"/>
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<entry rank="9" name="PATRICIA" frequency-per-10k="125"/>
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<entry rank="10" name="CHARLES" frequency-per-10k="120"/>
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<entry rank="11" name="JENNIFER" frequency-per-10k="115"/>
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<entry rank="12" name="THOMAS" frequency-per-10k="115"/>
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<entry rank="13" name="LINDA" frequency-per-10k="110"/>
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<entry rank="14" name="ELIZABETH" frequency-per-10k="105"/>
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<entry rank="15" name="JOSE" frequency-per-10k="75"/>
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<entry rank="16" name="MARIA" frequency-per-10k="72"/>
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</histogram>
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<histogram type="lender-city" source="hmda-2023-2024-durham-market">
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<entry city="Charlotte" state="NC" lender-count="4" notes="Truist, Movement, BofA-SE, First Citizens"/>
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<entry city="Detroit/Pontiac" state="MI" lender-count="2" notes="Rocket, UWM"/>
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<entry city="San Francisco" state="CA" lender-count="1" notes="Wells Fargo"/>
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<entry city="Irving" state="TX" lender-count="1" notes="CrossCountry"/>
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<entry city="Madison" state="WI" lender-count="1" notes="Fairway"/>
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<entry city="Arlington" state="TX" lender-count="1" notes="DHI Mortgage"/>
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<entry city="Irvine" state="CA" lender-count="1" notes="loanDepot"/>
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<entry city="Pittsburgh" state="PA" lender-count="1" notes="PNC"/>
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<entry city="New York" state="NY" lender-count="1" notes="JPMorgan Chase"/>
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<entry city="Minneapolis" state="MN" lender-count="1" notes="US Bank"/>
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</histogram>
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<histogram type="lender-county" source="hmda-origination-geography">
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<entry region="Durham County (local)" percentage="35" notes="Branch-based local origination"/>
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<entry region="Mecklenburg County (Charlotte)" percentage="20" notes="Regional HQ origination"/>
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<entry region="Out-of-state (national)" percentage="45" notes="Digital/call-center origination"/>
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</histogram>
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<histogram type="property-age" source="durham-tax-admin-acs-housing">
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<entry range="Pre-1939" percentage="5.2" count="8540"/>
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<entry range="1940-1959" percentage="9.8" count="16094"/>
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<entry range="1960-1979" percentage="18.5" count="30381"/>
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<entry range="1980-1999" percentage="28.3" count="46475"/>
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<entry range="2000-2009" percentage="19.7" count="32352"/>
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<entry range="2010-2019" percentage="12.8" count="21020"/>
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<entry range="2020-2026" percentage="5.7" count="9361"/>
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</histogram>
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</histograms>
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<speculations>
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<iq-speculation>
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<basis>
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<point>55.2% bachelor's degree or higher (1.5x national)</point>
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<point>Duke University, RTP corridor, biotech/pharma employers</point>
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<point>Median household income $84,326 (above national)</point>
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<point>15.6% foreign-born (high-skill immigration)</point>
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</basis>
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<speculated-mean-iq>113</speculated-mean-iq>
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<national-mean-iq>100</national-mean-iq>
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<distribution>
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<tier iq-range="below-100" percentage="28" description="Service workers, laborers, some students"/>
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<tier iq-range="100-119" percentage="32" description="Skilled trades, admin, mid-level professionals"/>
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<tier iq-range="120-139" percentage="25" description="University-educated professionals, engineers, MDs"/>
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<tier iq-range="140-159" percentage="10" description="Senior researchers, executives, attorneys, PhDs"/>
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<tier iq-range="160-179" percentage="3.5" description="Department heads, PIs, rare engineering talent"/>
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<tier iq-range="180-199" percentage="1.2" description="Distinguished faculty, venture principals"/>
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<tier iq-range="200-220+" percentage="0.3" description="Theoretical: founders, polymaths, savants"/>
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</distribution>
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</iq-speculation>
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<age-speculation>
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<median-property-owner-age>51</median-property-owner-age>
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<median-population-age>36.2</median-population-age>
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<speculated-average-actual-age>44</speculated-average-actual-age>
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<speculated-average-perceived-age>37</speculated-average-perceived-age>
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<newness-illusion-gap-years>7</newness-illusion-gap-years>
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</age-speculation>
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<health-speculation>
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<disability-rate-under-65>0.076</disability-rate-under-65>
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<uninsured-rate-under-65>0.114</uninsured-rate-under-65>
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<tier age-range="28-38" chronic-condition-rate="0.12" exercise-rate="0.60"/>
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<tier age-range="39-55" chronic-condition-rate="0.35" exercise-rate="0.40"/>
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<tier age-range="56-75" chronic-condition-rate="0.55" exercise-rate="0.30"/>
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</health-speculation>
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<retirement-savings-speculation>
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<tier age-range="28-38" median-savings="75000" notes="Behind target, student loan burden"/>
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<tier age-range="39-55" median-savings="275000" notes="Moderate, deferred by house illusion costs"/>
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<tier age-range="56-75" median-savings="650000" notes="Realistic planners, knew house age"/>
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<newness-illusion-penalty min="50000" max="120000" currency="USD"
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explanation="Those who think house is new save less due to surprise maintenance"/>
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</retirement-savings-speculation>
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</speculations>
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<society-ages>
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<age order="1" name="The Tobacco Age" period="1880-1960">
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<description>Durham built on tobacco, textiles, and Black Wall Street</description>
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<property-character>Brick, small-lot, walkable, known build dates</property-character>
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<iq-distribution mean="100">Normal — no university bias</iq-distribution>
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<retirement-model>Pensions and Social Security</retirement-model>
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<health-model>Short lifespan, manual labor, no insurance concept</health-model>
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</age>
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<age order="2" name="The University/Research Age" period="1960-2010">
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<description>RTP (1959), Duke expansion, massive educated in-migration</description>
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<property-character>Suburban sprawl, larger lots, cul-de-sacs, newness illusion begins</property-character>
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<iq-distribution mean="110">Shifted right by research corridor hiring</iq-distribution>
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<retirement-model>401k transition, pensions dying, equity-based</retirement-model>
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<health-model>Managed care, Duke Medical proximity, reactive treatment</health-model>
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</age>
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<age order="3" name="The Tech/Biotech Age" period="2010-present">
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<description>Startup hub, biotech corridor, remote-work magnet, FIRE movement</description>
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<property-character>Luxury apartments, mixed-use, infill, maximum newness illusion</property-character>
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<iq-distribution mean="113">Further right — tech/biotech selection pressure</iq-distribution>
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<retirement-model>Crypto/equity-heavy, FIRE movement, app-based planning</retirement-model>
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<health-model>Wellness culture, biometric tracking emerging, pre-neuron chemistry</health-model>
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</age>
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</society-ages>
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<iq-social-speculation>
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<tier iq="100">
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<belief>My house is fine, it's only 5 years old (bought 2021, built 2008)</belief>
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<behavior>Follows neighborhood consensus, trusts Zillow estimates</behavior>
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<financial-action>Saves what's left after expenses, no modeling</financial-action>
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</tier>
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<tier iq="120">
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<belief>I should check the inspection report year</belief>
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<behavior>Reads Kiplinger, follows Dave Ramsey, checks Redfin comps</behavior>
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<financial-action>Increases 401k to 12%, has emergency fund</financial-action>
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</tier>
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<tier iq="140">
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<belief>Cap rate on this property vs S&amp;P historical returns is suboptimal</belief>
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<behavior>Models scenarios, reads NBER papers, uses spreadsheets</behavior>
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<financial-action>Budgets HVAC replacement by year, Roth conversion ladder</financial-action>
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</tier>
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<tier iq="160">
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<belief>Zoning overlay creates arbitrage vs adjacent parcels</belief>
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<behavior>Monte Carlo retirement simulation, sees systems others miss</behavior>
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<financial-action>Structured holdings, tax-loss harvesting, donor-advised funds</financial-action>
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</tier>
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<tier iq="180">
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<belief>Durham's growth rate vs infrastructure bond capacity creates fiscal cliff 2034</belief>
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<behavior>Operates 10-20 years ahead of peers, consults for institutions</behavior>
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<financial-action>Charitable remainder trust, stepped-up basis optimization</financial-action>
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</tier>
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<tier iq="200">
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<belief>Research Triangle will bifurcate into biotech/AI corridors by 2032</belief>
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<behavior>Land-banking at convergence of transit + fiber + water rights</behavior>
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<financial-action>Self-balancing actuarial trust auto-rebalances on fed funds rate</financial-action>
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</tier>
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<tier iq="220+">
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<belief>Society is a system to be designed, not participated in</belief>
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<behavior>Creates frameworks others use to speculate</behavior>
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<financial-action>Property ownership is governance mechanism, not personal asset</financial-action>
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</tier>
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</iq-social-speculation>
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<rules>
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<rule id="1">College degrees ARE present — 55.2% bachelor's or higher is confirmed</rule>
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<rule id="2">Society is PRE-neuron chemistry — decisions are behavioral, not pharmacological</rule>
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<rule id="3">The "newness illusion" (confusing purchase date with build date) is systemic</rule>
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<rule id="4">IQ correlates with property lifecycle awareness and retirement preparedness</rule>
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<rule id="5">Lender geography (45% out-of-state) means capital decisions are remote</rule>
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<rule id="6">Property age histogram peaks at 1980-1999 — most stock is aging silently</rule>
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<rule id="7">Three society ages (Tobacco, University, Tech) explain the IQ shift</rule>
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<rule id="8">Health outcomes correlate inversely with newness illusion strength</rule>
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<rule id="9">Retirement savings deficit correlates with newness illusion magnitude</rule>
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<rule id="10">Pre-neuron chemistry society cannot optimize dopamine/cortisol responses to property</rule>
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</rules>
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<suggestions>
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<suggestion id="1" priority="high">
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Citizens should be educated on BUILD DATE vs PURCHASE DATE distinction
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</suggestion>
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<suggestion id="2" priority="high">
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Retirement calculators should include deferred-maintenance shock modeling
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</suggestion>
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<suggestion id="3" priority="medium">
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IQ-stratified financial literacy programs would reduce savings gaps
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</suggestion>
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<suggestion id="4" priority="medium">
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Local lenders (35% market share) should offer age-of-structure awareness tools
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</suggestion>
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<suggestion id="5" priority="low">
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Future neuron-chemistry-aware society will render newness illusion obsolete
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</suggestion>
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<suggestion id="6" priority="low">
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Property tax assessments should visually display structure age prominently
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</suggestion>
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</suggestions>
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<pre-neuron-chemistry-notes>
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<note>Society operates on behavioral psychology, not receptor-level optimization</note>
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<note>Serotonin, dopamine, cortisol, and oxytocin drive property decisions unconsciously</note>
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<note>IQ is measured but not pharmacologically enhanced or modulated</note>
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<note>Intelligence is perceived as fixed rather than chemically tunable</note>
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<note>The "nest instinct" (oxytocin) makes purchase = bond, creating newness illusion</note>
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<note>Retirement anxiety (cortisol) is treated as normal rather than chemically manageable</note>
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<note>Dopamine novelty bias makes new purchases feel "new" regardless of build year</note>
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<note>A post-neuron-chemistry society would: medicate illusions, optimize savings behavior,
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and treat property decisions as pharmacologically-informed actuarial computations</note>
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</pre-neuron-chemistry-notes>
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<data-sources>
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<source id="1" type="local">data/durham.nc.addresses.csv (189,606 address points)</source>
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<source id="2" type="web">https://rodweb.dconc.gov/web/search/DOCSEARCH5S1</source>
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<source id="3" type="web">U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts — Durham County, NC</source>
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<source id="4" type="web">Census Reporter — ACS 2024 1-year</source>
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<source id="5" type="web">HMDA Mortgage Data 2023-2024</source>
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<source id="6" type="web">Durham County Tax Administration 2025 Reappraisal</source>
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<source id="7" type="web">U.S. Census Bureau Surnames (2020 Decennial)</source>
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</data-sources>
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</scout-report>

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